Walk down any grocery aisle in America today and you’ll overhear the same conversation: “Did milk always cost this much?” The numbers on the register may not match the headlines about inflation “cooling,” but they match the uneasy feeling in shoppers’ wallets.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that Food at Home prices rose just 1.8% in 2024¹ and were up 2.2% year-over-year in July 2025.² Yet when we look at Empower Personal Dashboard^TM data on how much households are actually spending across grocery categories, the story takes a twist: spending isn’t just creeping up—it may be influencing what families put in their carts.

All the data in this research article is sourced from Empower Personal Dashboard.

Got dairy?

In January 2023, the average monthly spending on dairy items was $195. By July 2025, households were spending an average of $204 per month on dairy. That’s a 4.6% increase in out-of-pocket spending compared to 2023, even though the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for dairy and related products rose by only 1.3% over the same period.³

High steaks

Average spending on meat rose from $157 in January 2023 to $166 in July 2025, a 5.7% increase. This rise contrasts with the CPI’s 4.2% increase.⁴ Meat prices are highly sensitive to weather, feed costs, and global supply chains—factors that a smooth national price index simply may not fully capture. For households, this volatility means that one month’s steak night is affordable, while the next month it may feel like a splurge. The CPI might suggest “mild inflation,” but the price at checkout can tell a very different story.

Shelf-stable produce

On paper, produce spending looks steady—$143 in January 2023 and $142 per month in July 2025. But behind that apparent stability lies a trend of rising prices: CPI data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that produce prices climbed 6.3% between January 2023 and July 2025, suggesting that flat spending likely reflects cutbacks rather than stable pricing.

International foods: The first cut

Spending on international foods fell from $101 in January 2023 to just $89 by June 2025—likely a drop in demand rather than in prices. Tariffs on imported specialty foods act like a ‘food tax,’ driving up costs and discouraging purchases.

Prepared foods

Prepared foods—deli sandwiches, ready-to-heat sides, rotisserie chickens—are the most lifestyle-driven category. Spending, which stood at $134 in December 2024, slipped to $132 in July 2025. This decline suggests households may be pulling back on convenience purchases as budgets tighten.

Outpacing the CPI: The hidden inflation

Stacked against CPI’s modest 2% annual increase, consumer spending tells a sharper story:

• Dairy and dairy products: Outpacing official inflation, signaling a heavier burden than CPI suggests.
• Meat: Marked by volatility, often climbing higher than CPI’s baseline due to supply shocks.
• Produce, international foods, and prepared foods: Flat or falling, not from lower prices but from households cutting back.

The official narrative says inflation is easing. Shoppers, however, feel it differently. The real story isn’t just higher prices—it’s substitution, trade-offs, and lighter grocery bags. Inflation hasn’t disappeared; it has simply changed form.